Under the guidance of the "double carbon" strategy, the transportation industry has been accelerating on the road of green upgrading and transformation. As the largest carbon emission producer in the transportation industry, the task of carbon reduction and emission reduction in the heavy truck industry is even more important. In recent years, new energy heavy trucks such as electric heavy trucks and hydrogen energy heavy trucks have continuously injected "green genes" into the transportation industry, and the industry has been thriving.

July has arrived, and half of a year has passed. Looking back at the first half of the year, on the one hand, favorable policies continued to be introduced, and on the other hand, freight rates fell and fuel costs rose. In this context, how did the new energy heavy truck industry perform? What are the characteristics?

Sales continue to rise, and market competition is becoming increasingly intense

In the first half of the year, the state and local governments introduced favorable policies such as giving road rights, capital subsidies, and high-speed fee concessions for the new energy heavy truck industry, and at the same time required the accelerated elimination of diesel trucks operated by National III and below emission standards.

Under the empowerment of the policy, the new energy heavy truck handed over an extraordinary sales report card. Data show that from January to May 2024, a total of 20,988 new energy heavy trucks were sold (8767 in January to May 2023), an increase of 139.40% year-on-year. The number of companies selling new energy heavy trucks also increased from 79 in the same period last year to 111.

From the monthly data, the monthly sales volume has almost doubled compared with the same period last year, showing a positive growth trend. However, due to the intertwined influence of multiple complex factors, this year's sales data fluctuates more than last year.

According to statistics, the new energy heavy trucks sold in 2023 for more than 34,500 vehicles, and this year only in the first five months of sales has exceeded 20,000 vehicles, this data undoubtedly highlights the strong momentum of new energy heavy truck sales continue to rise. And from the sales trend in previous years, the second half is often the highlight of the market.

Previously, some industry insiders predicted that the sales of new energy heavy trucks this year are expected to reach 60,000. It is foreseeable that the new energy heavy truck market in the second half of the year has great potential. In addition, the traditional heavy truck leaders seem to be accelerating the layout of the new energy field recently, bringing more possibilities for the sales of new energy heavy trucks this year.

The market share of power replacement heavy trucks has dropped significantly

Among the major supplementary models of new energy heavy trucks, electric heavy trucks undoubtedly occupy the core position of the market and become the first choice for customers. From January to May 2024, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks was 19,892, accounting for 94.78%.

The electric heavy truck can be subdivided into two types of supplementary energy models: charging heavy trucks and power exchange heavy trucks. The charging interface of charging heavy trucks is unified across the country, which can achieve free charging, but the cost of purchasing a car is high. The "vehicle-electricity separation" mode of power exchange heavy trucks reduces the cost of purchasing a car and shortens the time for replenishing energy, but the battery standard is not uniform and the cost of changing power stations is high.

Both have their own obvious advantages and disadvantages, which bring different levels of troubles to customers. Therefore, the market share of charging heavy trucks and power replacement heavy trucks has also been changing.

According to statistics, in January-May 2023, the replacement heavy truck accounted for 50.59% of the market with the sales of 4,435 vehicles, becoming the largest supplementary model at that time; in contrast, the sales of charging heavy trucks were slightly inferior, at 3,758 vehicles, accounting for 42.86%. This data clearly reflects the enthusiasm of the replacement heavy truck in the market last year.

However, looking at the first five months of 2024, 8109 replacement heavy trucks were sold, accounting for only 38.64%; a total of 11,783 charging heavy trucks were sold, accounting for 56.14%, making it the largest supplementary vehicle with an absolute advantage.

From the above figure, it is clear that the market share of power replacement heavy trucks significantly exceeded half from January to May last year, and even at the lowest point, it was able to maintain a share of more than 45%. However, the situation in the same period this year has changed significantly, and its market share has shown a trend of gradually shrinking.

Customer choice is a bellwether for companies to explore the market, and it is a direct reflection of the development of the industry. In the case of falling battery prices, lower vehicle costs, and new breakthroughs in fast charging/overcharging technology, rechargeable heavy trucks are favored by customers. However, calls for a unified power exchange standard are also growing louder. Whether the power exchange heavy truck can return to the "throne" in the future is still unknown.

New forces in car manufacturing are emerging

As a booming emerging industry, the field of new energy heavy trucks has attracted many "players" to join. The traditional faction, the cross-border faction, and the overtaking faction all show their superpowers, intending to occupy a place in the market competition. At the same time, a new force of car manufacturing has emerged, and they have firmly entered the road of "intelligent" car manufacturing that is being developed from the very beginning, which has attracted extensive attention in the industry.

In the first half of the year, these new car makers competed to launch their own heavy truck products, and the fast-paced ones have successfully entered a new stage of mass delivery.

DeepWay, as the only positive design truck manufacturing new force in China that has achieved mass production and delivery, has delivered stunning results in the first half of this year. On February 27, a centralized delivery ceremony of 100 new energy heavy trucks was held in Linyi, Shandong; on May 10, the first batch of 24 smart new energy heavy trucks was held in Ningxia; on June 14, the first batch of 20 smart new energy heavy trucks was held in Tongchuan, Shaanxi; on June 25, the first batch of 8 smart new energy heavy trucks was held in Chenzhou, Hunan. The first signing is 100 units, fully demonstrating the customer's recognition of the quality of its products.

On April 12, Suleopard launched the third-generation intelligent electric heavy truck based on the world's leading technology - Suleopard Black King Kong, which has achieved comprehensive breakthroughs in energy consumption, power, thermal management, battery life, safety and durability by virtue of in-depth self-research, full-stack software definition and vehicle data evolution. However, there is no news of its delivery yet, and we look forward to good news from Suleopard in the second half of the year.

On April 19, the world's first hydrogen fuel cell trunk logistics heavy truck under development - the first body-in-white launch ceremony of Hypert H49 was successfully held in Yangzhou, Jiangsu. On June 28, the first tooling prototype of Hypert H49 was officially launched. Previously, Sun Ying, CEO of Hypert, revealed: "The H49 is expected to be delivered in small batches in the second half of 2024, and will be officially mass-produced and launched in 2025."

On May 16, the two new energy heavy truck products of Zero One Automobile - Xiaoman and Jingzhe were officially released. On June 28, Zero One Automobile signed an order for 50 new energy heavy trucks in the southwest region and completed the delivery of the first batch of vehicles. On July 3, Zero One Automobile signed an order for 100 new energy heavy trucks with local enterprises in Wuxuan County, Guangxi and completed the first batch of deliveries.

Nowadays, major new car-making forces are competing to emerge and form their own faction. It is foreseeable that the new energy heavy truck industry will set off a more intense industry competition, and the competition will become increasingly intense.

Conclusion

In the first half of the year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks continued to rise, and new forces in vehicle manufacturing entered the stage one after another. Traditional car companies were not to be outdone, and the market competition became increasingly fierce. At the same time, the market share of charging and replacing heavy trucks also showed significant changes, reflecting the continuous innovation and progress of industry technology.

As an industry full of vitality and vitality, the new energy heavy truck industry is still in a stage of rapid development. Its industry structure has not yet been fully finalized, and the future is still full of infinite possibilities. So, in the second half of the next year, what kind of development trend will the new energy heavy truck industry show? Stay tuned for our latest reports and look forward to further breakthroughs and development in the industry.